💡 Thu tuong tuong cong ty ban muon mua co phieu...

Truoc khi mua co phieu, ban muon biet cong ty do loi nhuan tot khong? No nhieu khong? Tuong lai the nao?

Giao dich ngoai te cung tuong tu!
Thay vi xem "cong ty" chung ta xem "quoc gia" 🌍

• Nuoc nao kinh te tot, nguoi ta muon giu tien nuoc do → dong tien manh
• Nuoc nao kinh te yeu, nguoi ta chay di → dong tien yeu

Fundamental Analysis la gi?

Fundamental Analysis (FA) la phan tich "suc khoe kinh te" cua quoc gia qua cac chi so kinh te, chinh sach ngan hang trung uong va tin tuc quan trong de du doan dong tien se manh hay yeu

💡 Cong thuc don gian:
Kinh te tot 💪 → Nha dau tu muon vao → Nhu cau dong tien cao → Dong tien manh
Kinh te yeu 📉 → Nha dau tu chay di → Nhu cau dong tien thap → Dong tien yeu

Flow hien thi yeu to kinh te (Interest Rate, GDP, Employment) lam dong tien manh len hay yeu di

Yeu to anh huong den ty gia

1. 🏦 Lai suat (Interest Rate)

💵 Tuong tuong 2 ngan hang gui tiet kiem...

Ngan hang A tra lai suat 5%
Ngan hang B tra lai suat 1%

Ban se gui o dau? Chac chan la Ngan hang A!

Quoc gia cung vay — nuoc nao lai suat cao, tien se chay vao, dong tien se manh!

Yeu to quan trong nhat trong thi truong Forex!
Lai suat cao → Nha dau tu do xo vao gui tien/dau tu → Dong tien manh
Lai suat thap → Tien chay ra tim loi nhuan tot hon → Dong tien yeu
Theo doi cuoc hop ngan hang trung uong: Fed (My), ECB (chau Au), BOJ (Nhat), BOE (Anh)

2. Lam phat (Inflation)

Lam phat cao → Suc mua giam → Dong tien yeu (dai han)
Lam phat cao → Ngan hang trung uong tang lai suat → Dong tien manh (ngan han)
Xem tu chi so CPI (Consumer Price Index)

3. Viec lam

Viec lam cao = Kinh te tot → Dong tien manh
That nghiep cao = Kinh te khong tot → Dong tien yeu
Xem tu NFP, Unemployment Rate

4. GDP (Tong san pham quoc noi)

GDP tang → Kinh te tot → Dong tien manh
GDP giam → Kinh te suy thoai → Dong tien yeu

5. Can can thuong mai (Trade Balance)

Xuat khau > Nhap khau (thang du) → Dong tien manh
Nhap khau > Xuat khau (tham hut) → Dong tien yeu

📰 Tin tuc kinh te quan trong

🇺🇸 Non-Farm Payroll (NFP)

La gi	So lieu viec lam phi nong nghiep cua My
Cong bo khi nao	Thu Sau dau tien moi thang 19:30 (gio Viet Nam)
Tac dong	Rat lon! Gia bien dong manh 50-100+ pips
So lieu tot	USD manh (cao hon du kien)
So lieu xau	USD yeu (thap hon du kien)

📊 CPI (Consumer Price Index)

La gi	Chi so gia tieu dung, do lam phat
Cong bo khi nao	Hang thang (moi nuoc khac nhau)
Tac dong	Lon! Anh huong den chinh sach lai suat
CPI cao hon du kien	Du kien tang lai suat → Dong tien manh
CPI thap hon du kien	Co the giam lai suat → Dong tien yeu

🏦 FOMC Meeting

La gi	Cuoc hop chinh sach tien te cua Fed (My)
Cong bo khi nao	8 lan/nam (khoang 6 tuan mot lan)
Tac dong	Rat lon! Dinh huong lai suat USD
Can xem	Statement, Dot Plot, Press Conference

Cac ngan hang trung uong quan trong

Fed (My) — Anh huong den USD va thi truong toan cau
ECB (chau Au) — Anh huong den EUR
BOJ (Nhat) — Anh huong den JPY
BOE (Anh) — Anh huong den GBP
RBA (Uc) — Anh huong den AUD
RBNZ (New Zealand) — Anh huong den NZD
BOC (Canada) — Anh huong den CAD
SNB (Thuy Si) — Anh huong den CHF

📅 Economic Calendar — Cong cu quan trong!

📆 Economic Calendar giong lich thi...

Hoc sinh gioi phai biet thi ngay nao, mon gi de chuan bi
Trader gioi phai biet tin ra ngay nao, luc may gio de san sang!

Khong xem lich co the bi tin lon danh bat ngo 💀

Economic Calendar la lich tong hop ngay-gio cong bo tin kinh te tren toan the gioi. La cong cu ma moi Trader phai xem hang ngay!

💡 Website Economic Calendar khuyen nghi (mien phi!):
• Forex Factory — forexfactory.com (pho bien nhat)
• Investing.com — investing.com/economic-calendar
• Myfxbook — myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
• TradingView — tradingview.com/economic-calendar

Cach doc Economic Calendar

🔴 Mau do / 3 sao — Tac dong rat lon! Gia bien dong manh phai can than!
🟠 Mau cam / 2 sao — Tac dong trung binh, co the co bien dong
🟡 Mau vang / 1 sao — Tac dong thap, thuong khong anh huong nhieu

3 con so can xem

Previous — Gia tri lan truoc (de so sanh)
Forecast — Gia tri du kien cua cac nha phan tich
Actual — Gia tri thuc te duoc cong bo

💡 Quy tac quan trong:
Actual > Forecast nhieu → thuong la tich cuc cho dong tien do
Actual < Forecast nhieu → thuong la tieu cuc cho dong tien do
Cang chenh lech nhieu so voi du kien, bien dong cang manh!

Cach giao dich khi co tin

🟢 Cho nguoi moi: Tranh giao dich khi co tin quan trong

Dong lenh truoc khi tin ra 15-30 phut
Doi thi truong on dinh (15-30 phut sau tin)
Roi phan tich huong va vao lenh

🟡 Cho nguoi co kinh nghiem: News Trading

Phan tich so lieu se tot hon hay xau hon du kien
Chuan bi vi the truoc khi tin ra
Phai dat Stop Loss luon!

⚠️ Canh bao: Trong khung tin quan trong:
• Spread rong ra nhieu (5-10 lan)
• Gia bien dong du doi 50-200+ pips trong vai phut
• Co the bi Slippage (gia khop khong dung nhu dat)
• Nguoi moi nen tranh!

TA vs FA: Dung cai nao?

Cau tra loi la dung ca hai!

FA — Cho biet "huong" cua dong tien trong trung-dai han
TA — Cho biet "thoi diem" tot de vao-ra lenh

💡 Vi du:
FA cho biet Fed se tang lai suat → USD co the manh
TA cho biet EUR/USD giam xuong cham ho tro + RSI Oversold
→ Doi EUR/USD bat len truoc, roi tim co hoi Sell o vi tri tot

Tom tat

FA phan tich yeu to kinh te: lai suat, lam phat, viec lam, GDP
Tin quan trong: NFP, CPI, FOMC
Dung Economic Calendar xem lich tin hang ngay
Nguoi moi nen tranh giao dich khi co tin lon
Dung FA + TA ket hop cho ket qua tot nhat

🎯 Bai tiep theo: Chung ta se hoc cach chon broker — Nhung dieu can xem truoc khi mo tai khoan va broker phu hop cho nguoi Viet Nam